The Iran Podcast The Cost of War with Iran
Mar 25, 2026
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow and analyst of Iranian politics, offers concise analysis of Iran’s shifting leadership and public mood. She discusses Mujtaba Khamenei’s unexpected selection, reasons clerics backed him, and whether he will follow his father’s hardline path. She also covers societal reactions, the risk of assassination, and the potential for escalating instability.
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Unconventional Succession Signals Hardline Consolidation
- Murtazavi highlights Mujtaba Khamenei as an unconventional, largely shadow figure elevated amid wartime chaos.
- His selection signals continuity and consolidation of power by hardline military-security institutions like the Revolutionary Guards.
War Framed The Choice As Defiance Not Merit
- The wartime context and assassination of the previous leader made choosing the son a show of defiance and continuity.
- That choice favored candidates backed by the military-security apparatus over previously considered moderates like Rouhani.
New Generation Could Shift Policy But Faces Limits
- A generational shift may open policy changes because Mujtaba lacks decades of rulings that constrained the previous leader.
- Yet he stems from the same hardline camp and is supported by militaristic elements, limiting possible reforms.