OPERATORS E143: Q4 Sales Are Wild!
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Dec 10, 2025 The operators dive into Black Friday and Cyber Monday results, highlighting why some brands thrived while others faltered. They debate the effectiveness of early sales, explore inflation's shift in consumer spending, and reveal rising trends in "Buy Now, Pay Later" services. Potential risks of consumer debt and strategies for managing post-holiday returns are discussed. The impact of regional sales dynamics, particularly between the US and Canada, also comes into play, alongside tips for navigating e-commerce fraud.
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Holiday Growth Figures Have Selection Bias
- Aggregated Shopify/NoCommerce data show growth in holiday sales but selection bias exists.
- Reported strong year-over-year gains likely overrepresent high-growth DTC cohorts.
AOV And Inflation Drove Growth
- Unit counts were flat while dollar volume rose, suggesting AOV/inflation drove growth.
- Many gains in holiday revenue reflect higher prices, not more orders.
Inflation Shifts Spend Toward Goods
- Inflation can make durable goods relatively more attractive versus expensive experiences.
- Lower relative cost of goods can boost DTC demand when travel and events become pricier.