Daily Politics from the New Statesman What if Russia wins?
Feb 23, 2026
Carlo Masala, German political scientist and author on Russian strategy, offers a stark look at a possible Russian victory. He explores Russia testing NATO, targeting border towns, and using war to legitimize expansion. He discusses European capability gaps, nuclear signalling, and whether Europe can shoulder more defence without full US backing.
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Russia Seeks To Erode NATO Not Just Conquer Ukraine
- Russia's objective goes beyond Ukraine and aims to force a collapse or withdrawal of NATO's US presence.
- Carlo Masala argues limited incursions on NATO's 'soft underbellies' can test Article 5 without full-scale war, using Narva as an illustration.
Minority Protection Gives Russia A Convenient Pretext
- Russia can claim protection of Russian-speaking minorities as a pretext to occupy small parts of NATO territory.
- Masala points to border cities with Russian passports and language ties, making them attractive targets for staged incursions.
A Russian Victory Would Likely Accelerate Further Ambition
- Winning in Ukraine would likely fuel Russian ambitions to push further into Europe rather than end expansionist aims.
- Masala highlights Kremlin demands for US forces' withdrawal to revert European security to a pre-enlargement era.
