CNBC Business News Update Market Open: Stocks Higher, Investors Hopeful That Iran War Talks Could Happen, New Mexico AG On Win Over Meta 3/25/26
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Mar 25, 2026 Jeff Cox, CNBC.com economics editor who tracks recession odds and rates. He discusses rising recession probability from top economists. He covers climbing mortgage rates and weakening demand. He also touches on market reactions to easing Iran Strait tensions and shipping disruptions affecting oil and gas prices.
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Markets Rally On Hope For Iran Talks
- Markets rose on hopes talks could prevent the Iran conflict from expanding and disrupting trade.
- Jessica Ettinger reported Dow up ~520 points, S&P up 71, Nasdaq up 308, with Amazon and NVIDIA leading gains.
Oil Flow Disruptions Raise Gas Prices
- Shipping disruptions from attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have stalled over a thousand tankers and removed about a fifth of global oil flows.
- AAA reported national gas average just under $3.99 and 12 states at $4, while diesel exceeds $7 in California.
Economists Lift Recession Odds As Risks Rise
- Economists are raising recession probabilities amid geopolitical risk and rising consumer costs.
- Jeff Cox noted Moody's near 50% recession chance, Goldman 30%, EY Parthenon ~40%, Wilmington Trust 45%, and mortgage rates over 6.5%.