Change Signal The OG of Scenario Planning Jeremy Bentham
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Apr 22, 2026 Jeremy Bentham, long-time leader of Shell’s scenario planning team and strategic thinker on uncertainty. He discusses why scenario thinking is a strategic mindset. He explains how to map steady factors and critical uncertainties. He shares techniques to make scenarios sticky and to help leaders discover insights for themselves.
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Scenario Thinking Is Strategic Character
- Scenario thinking is a strategic mindset that maps steady forces, critical uncertainties, and plausible alternative outcomes to avoid lazy single-path strategy.
- Jeremy Bentham argues alternative currents and countercurrents combine unpredictably, so exploring plausible landscapes sharpens decision quality.
Lehman Collapse Scenarios Briefed The Board
- Jeremy built short‑term scenarios after Lehman Brothers in September 2008 to brief Shell's board on recession and recovery decisions.
- He took scenarios to the board within weeks to inform urgent strategic choices during the financial crash.
Map Issues By Importance And Uncertainty
- Prioritise driving forces by importance and uncertainty to identify critical variables that shape different futures.
- Map issues on two axes (importance vs uncertainty/ignorance) and focus top-right clusters for scenario development and attention.