SmarterMarkets™ Special Episode | Iranian Conflict: Geopolitics and Energy Markets with Helima Croft, Managing Director & Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
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Mar 7, 2026 Helima Croft, Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, brings sharp geopolitics and energy-market expertise. She walks through recent strikes, Iran’s drone and militia capabilities, Gulf interceptor shortages, and the ripple effects on LNG, oil supply and strategic reserves. She highlights key inflection points to watch as tensions shape prices and regional risk.
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U.S. Priority Shift After Mar-a-Lago Meeting
- The U.S. shifted Iran from low priority to active military focus after President Trump's meeting with Netanyahu and broadened triggers for action beyond nuclear threats.
- That shift prompted the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since 2003 and set a launch sequence toward escalation.
Drones Replace Missiles As Iran's Main Tool
- Iran's missile stockpiles may be dwindling but its prolific, low-cost drone production gives it abundant strike capacity.
- Drones have been shipped to Russia and used via proxies like the Houthis and Iraqi militias, raising sustained asymmetric threat levels.
Targeted Strikes Can Cripple Energy Flows Without a Strait Closure
- Iran can raise a shipping and insurance fear premium without closing the Strait of Hormuz by striking select tankers and infrastructure.
- Qatar halted the world's largest LNG facility at Ras Laffan, showing LNG has no simple de-risking fallback.