Read_932 - The World Order Has Broken Down

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Feb 18, 2026

A deep dive into declarations that the post-1945 order is dead and great power politics have returned. Readings explore how economic cycles, debt, and monetary breakdown can escalate into trade, technology, capital, and military conflicts. The discussion connects historical paths to war, wartime economic controls, and modern tools like capital weaponization. It ends by considering Bitcoin as a potential financial escape valve.

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INSIGHT

Post-1945 World Order Has Collapsed

Ray Dalio argues we are in stage six of the big cycle where external order breaks down and great power politics return.
International relations follow raw power dynamics more than laws, so wealth and military strength decide outcomes.

INSIGHT

Five Modes Of International Conflict

Dalio defines five major kinds of conflicts between countries: trade, technology, capital, geopolitical, and military wars.
These typically escalate from economic and political struggles into military fights when unresolved.

ADVICE

Negotiate To Create Win‑Win Outcomes

Negotiate for win-win outcomes by trading what matters most to the other side and to yourself.
Clearly state red lines, imagine the other's view, and avoid emotional or untruthful rhetoric that raises war risk.

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"German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, 'The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists', and that we are in a period of 'great power politics.'"

"He made clear that freedom 'is no longer a given' in this new era. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Merz’s assessment and said that Europe’s old security structures tied to the previous world order don't exist and that Europe must prepare for war."

"U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that we are in a 'new geopolitics era' because the 'old world' is gone."

~ Ray Dalio

The world order is officially dead - Germany, France, and the US all said so at the Munich Security Conference. Ray Dalio's chapter on the big cycle of external order and disorder lays out exactly how empires collapse and wars begin. But did Dalio miss the most important piece? What if the debt cycle he describes isn't just a pattern - what if it's a symptom of a fundamentally broken monetary system? And what happens when you drop Bitcoin into the middle of a world gearing up for conflict?

Check out the original article: The World Order Has Broken Down (Link: https://x.com/raydalio/status/2022788750388998543)

References from the episode

Ray Dalio's book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail - I read all of Chapter 6 in this episode and it's absolutely worth reading the whole thing (Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Changing_World_Order)

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