Pekingology Understanding Chinese Power
Mar 5, 2026
Zoe Liu, Fellow in China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author on China’s economic statecraft. She outlines China’s strategic use of trade, tech restrictions, and financial tools. Short, medium, and long goals are sketched. A Four Cs framework—capacity, capital, character, credibility—frames how Beijing builds leverage and seeks strategic autonomy.
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China's Huge Capacity Is Both Strength And Constraint
- Capacity means scale: China's huge industrial and military size gives obvious leverage but also creates domestic inefficiencies and international backlash from overcapacity.
- Zoe notes that enormous capacity constrains China via inefficient capital allocation and political costs from global pushback.
China's Manufacturing Depends On US Demand And Networks
- China's export-oriented industrial capacity still depends heavily on U.S. consumers through direct and indirect flows, meaning decoupling is costly and complex.
- Zoe emphasizes indirect exports via intermediaries and the role of US-trained scientists in China's innovation networks as ties that persist.
Using Coercion Shortens The Shelf Life Of Supply Dominance
- China learned from U.S. export controls and now deploys export controls itself, but heavy use of coercive economic tools accelerates other countries' efforts to build alternatives.
- Zoe cites rare earth and gallium restrictions prompting Japan and Western nations to diversify, showing China's dominance can be time-limited.