Energy Unplugged by Aurora

EP. 281 Data Center Load Growth and the Future of the US Grid

Mar 17, 2026
Jack Graham, PJM researcher who studies grid operations and capacity markets, and Lizzie Bonham, data‑center policy analyst focused on location and behind‑the‑meter tech, dig into soaring AI-driven power demand. They discuss Northern Virginia’s role, interconnection bottlenecks, market and regulatory shifts, behind‑the‑meter and gas bridging, and the challenge of forecasting huge concentrated loads.
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INSIGHT

Load Forecasts Vary Widely By Method And Assumption

  • Forecasting data center load is highly uncertain and method dependent, with wide differences across forecasters.
  • Lizzie Bonham explains Aurora uses a bottom-up facility-by-facility approach considering development stage and behind-the-meter plans.
INSIGHT

PJM Versus Aurora Forecasts Create Big Differences

  • PJM forecasts much larger data center-driven peak growth than Aurora, creating big reliability and market pressures.
  • Jack Graham notes PJM expects ~30 GW by 2030 while Aurora forecasts ~15 GW, implying a ~10% peak increase for PJM.
INSIGHT

Federal Push To Standardize Large Load Interconnection

  • FERC/DOE proposed rulemaking aims to standardize large-load interconnections under federal jurisdiction.
  • Jack Graham explains the ANOPR would centralize procedures, potentially letting ISOs study large loads and generation together and require curtailment agreements.
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