KQED's Forum We’re in for a Major Heat Wave
Mar 16, 2026
Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCANR and noted weather communicator, explains a record-shattering March heat dome. He describes how Pacific conditions and a Kona low amplify the ridge. He outlines consequences for Sierra snowpack, rapid melt and water storage, plus implications for wildfire risk and regional runoff timing.
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Hawaii Storms Helped Fuel The Western Ridge
- Remote Pacific features helped amplify the ridge via latent heating and atmospheric rivers.
- Swain links a Kona low near Hawaii and moisture transport across the North Pacific into the western U.S. ridge.
Wet But Warm Start Left Sierra Snow Uneven
- California had an unusually warm but at-times wet start to the water year, producing localized heavy high-elevation snow.
- Swain notes southern Sierra saw the wettest Oct–Dec in a century yet also the warmest, concentrating snow at very high elevations.
Early Melt Will Accelerate Fire And Water Stress
- The immediate consequence will be extremely rapid, possibly record snowmelt across western basins.
- Swain warns this early melt during a critical accumulation month will worsen summer wildfire risk and strain water systems like the Colorado River.