The Sean Spicer Show

The Redistricting War: Texas Gains 5 Seats While Democrats Fight Back in Virginia | Ep 684

Apr 2, 2026
Adam Kincaid, President & Executive Director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, breaks down state-by-state redistricting stakes. He details California’s vulnerable map, Missouri and North Carolina pickup chances, Ohio’s new winnable districts, and a long GOP play in Texas aiming for three to five seats. Virginia’s proposed map and Florida’s potential redraws loom large as midterm map fights heat up.
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INSIGHT

Missouri Likely Yields One GOP Pickup

  • Missouri's new map is likely to stand despite multiple lawsuits and a referendum push, yielding a probable Republican net gain of one seat.
  • The gain mainly reshaped the Kansas City/West side seat rather than splitting St. Louis.
INSIGHT

North Carolina Became An 11-3 Republican Map

  • North Carolina's new map is essentially an 11-3 plan to elect Republicans, creating a reliable Trump+10 pickup in NC-1.
  • Some incumbents ceded strength (e.g., Greg Murphy) but remain competitively safe.
INSIGHT

Redistricting Is A 15 Year Political War

  • Redistricting is a long-running partisan war, not a new reaction to Texas; both parties built redistricting arms years ago.
  • Litigation and strategic judge placement have been core tactics since 2011 to gain or defend seats.
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