The 2025 Holiday Reality Check

Nov 14, 2025

Lupine Skelly, Retail Research Leader at Deloitte, offers invaluable insights into this year's holiday shopping landscape. With consumer spending expected to drop by 10%, she emphasizes the importance of conveying value to shoppers. Skelly debunks myths around Black Friday's demise and highlights how private label brands are gaining traction amid shifting loyalties. Additionally, she discusses the influence of Gen Z, the rising use of AI in shopping, and how retailers must adapt to compete not just with each other, but also with entertainment spending.

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INSIGHT

Black Friday Lives On

Black Friday participation is rising, especially among younger shoppers, despite decade-long predictions of its demise.
Promotions earlier in the year like Prime Day are also pulling budget forward into October.

INSIGHT

Budget Shifts Toward Earlier Promotions

24% of holiday budgets are now spent by end of October, up from 20% last year.
Prime Day and follow-up promotions are creating a ‘Christmas in July’ effect that stretches spending earlier.

INSIGHT

Gen Z Pulls Back Sharply

Gen Z plans to cut holiday spending significantly, about 34% less than last year.
Job instability and tighter budgets are driving DIY and lower-cost gifting among younger shoppers.

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Lupine Skelly, Retail Research Leader at Deloitte, joins Phillip and Alicia to dissect the stark reality behind this year's holiday shopping forecast. Consumer spending is projected to drop by 10%, and economic pessimism has reached its highest level since the Great Recession. As a result, retailers are facing a season where communicating value is key. This conversation explores the enduring vitality of Black Friday, the quiet revolution of private label brands, and how cultural rituals, AI integration, and brand loyalty are being fundamentally rewired.

The Data Doesn’t Lie

Key Takeaways:

Shoppers expect to spend $1,595 this season as economic concerns peak
57% expect the economy to weaken, the most pessimistic outlook recorded since 1997
Black Friday remains vital despite two decades of obituaries
24% of budgets are spent by October due to the Prime Day effect
Private label gains ground as brand loyalty fundamentally shifts

Key Quotes:

[00:02:10.14] Lupine Skelly: "57% of people are saying they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, and that's the highest we've seen since we started tracking that question in 1997. To put that in context, 2008 was probably the next highest at 54%—that was around the Great Recession. So [there’s] a lot of uncertainty out there."
[00:04:42.72] Lupine Skelly: "I feel like people have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years. Is Black Friday dead? It's not dead."
[00:13:17.91] Lupine Skelly: "In our study, 42% of consumers are saying they're going to use gen AI to find the perfect gift. And even more are saying they're going to use it to find the best deals."
[00:25:49.24] Lupine Skelly: "Retail is always battling for share of wallet, but I think we're at a very different time period. Gaming, gambling—there's some big juggernauts taking what might have been the money you used to go to the mall years ago."

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