The Rest Is Money 256. Will Trump’s war on Iran sink markets and the global economy?
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Mar 2, 2026 Discussion of how strikes in the Middle East could choke oil and LNG flows and push energy prices higher. Analysis of risks to Gulf production, refining and liquefaction infrastructure. Debate over whether oil shocks will fuel inflation or sap growth and what that means for interest rates. Consideration of political and market fragilities that could deepen volatility.
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Immediate Market Moves After Attacks
- Oil and gas prices jumped sharply after attacks on shipping and facilities, pushing Brent up ~10% and gas up ~20% in early trading.
- Markets reacted with FTSE down ~1%, S&P futures down ~1.5%, the dollar and gold rising as safe havens, showing immediate risk pricing.
Strait Of Hormuz Is The Real Choke Point
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point carrying about one-fifth of global oil, so attacks there can sharply restrict flows and lift prices.
- Lloyd's refusing to insure ships and reports of at least three attacked vessels effectively halted shipping through the strait, compounding supply fears.
Risk To Production Not Just Transit
- Beyond transit disruption, attacks on Gulf states' production and refining facilities raise the risk of permanent loss of output.
- Iran firing missiles at neighbouring Arab states creates a real danger that infrastructure will be damaged, not just tanker traffic halted.