Big Jobs Miss Suggests Economy Is Sicker Than Believed | Lance Roberts

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Sep 6, 2025

Lance Roberts, a savvy portfolio manager, shares his insights on the alarming signs in the jobs market, noting a disappointing payroll report and less job openings than applicants. He discusses the potential for a recession on the horizon as unemployment rises. The conversation shifts to the intriguing dynamics of the stock market, precious metals' recent highs, and the importance of prudent risk management. Listeners also learn about the psychological traps investors face and the need for sound strategies in these uncertain times.

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INSIGHT

Trend, Not Monthly Noise

Employment trend matters more than single-month positives or negatives.
Lance Roberts emphasizes weakening employment trends as an early economic warning.

INSIGHT

Full-Time Employment Predicts Recessions

Full-time employment share predicts recessions when it turns down.
Lance shows full-time employment falling versus working-age population precedes economic slowdowns.

INSIGHT

Technicals: Buyers Mask Underlying Risks

Institutional buying at day-end and 20-day MA support have fueled recent market highs.
Negative momentum and RS divergences warn of a 5–8% correction if moving averages break.

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The jobs market is starting to show signs of being in real trouble.August payrolls were a huge disappointment, coming in at a VERY weak 22k (vs expectations of 75k).And the June payrolls number was revised downwards to a LOSS of -13k jobs,. On top of that, this week's JOLTS data revealed that there are now *fewer* jobs openings than applicants, something we haven't seen since the early days of COVID.As the unemployment rate now rises to 4.3%, should we expect it to begin rising more aggressively from here as the economy continues to slow?Are we seeing the early warning signs that a recession lies ahead?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest technical analysis for stocks, the ongoing breakout in gold & silver, the attractiveness of the oversold energy sector, prudent risk management best practices, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this latest Market Recap.

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