Azeem Azhar's Exponential View AI is eating into entry-level jobs
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Sep 5, 2025 This discussion dives deep into how generative AI is reshaping job opportunities, especially for entry-level professionals aged 22 to 25. A striking 13% decline in their job prospects signals a significant shift. The conversation explores how responsibilities are increasingly shifting to senior employees, with companies adapting their hiring practices. Mid-sized firms are highlighted as uniquely positioned to tackle these challenges. The future of education and the need for equitable access to AI skills are emphasized, ensuring young professionals are prepared for an evolving job market.
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Findings May Reflect Mid‑Market Firms
- ADP data mainly represents mid-market and regional firms, so effects may reflect a specific tier of the labor market.
- Smaller firms may react faster to AI and be more sensitive to cutting graduate hires.
Two Very Different Sectors Affected
- Customer service and software development were the most impacted sectors, despite being very different task types.
- This suggests either broad AI generalizability or distinct sector-specific mechanisms at play.
Firms Chose Fewer Hires Over Lower Pay
- Firms reduced hiring rather than lowering graduate salaries, likely preferring a smaller, higher-quality intake.
- This selection effect can raise average capability among new hires by trimming lower deciles.