Defence & Security Podcast Network CONTESTED GROUND: The pace of military change, with Dr David Kilcullen
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Oct 18, 2024 Dr. David Kilcullen, a former diplomat and expert in conflict analysis, joins the discussion on the evolution of warfare and military technology. He explores complex warfare dynamics over the past 25 years, highlighting shifts in tactics seen in Ukraine and Europe. The conversation dives into the impact of technological advancements on both state and non-state actors. Additionally, Kilcullen addresses the need for national resilience amidst rapid military changes and the importance of innovative strategies in current conflicts.
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Pace Of Military Change Outran Predictions
- Warfare's character predicted but pace underestimated by a decade.
- David Kilcullen noted 2005 forecasts expected 2015–2020 change, yet innovations arrived by 2010 accelerating diffusion of lethal tech to small labs.
Ubiquitous Surveillance Forces Distributed Operations
- Ubiquitous technical surveillance (UTS) makes hiding almost impossible on modern battlefields.
- Kilcullen described dense ISR from satellites, foliage-penetrating radar and Wi‑Fi imaging forcing distributed small-team operations supported by long-range fires.
Dispersion Dilemma Replaces Simple Concentration Logic
- The dispersion dilemma replaces classical mass concentration debates.
- Kilcullen explained that aggregating forces creates sensor targets while dispersing forces increases electronic/communications vulnerability to enemy targeting.