Brain for Business Series 1, Episode 7: Decision making under conditions of radical uncertainty, with Professor Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, The Open University
33 snips
Jul 28, 2020 Professor Mark Fenton-O'Creevy, an expert in decision-making at The Open University, dives into the complexities of making choices during radical uncertainty. He contrasts radical uncertainty with normal risk, highlighting how traditional risk models failed during the financial crisis. Mark emphasizes the intertwined nature of emotion and cognition in decision-making and discusses the limitations of big data and AI in unpredictable situations. He advocates for scenario planning to enhance resilience and cautions against comforting narratives that may blind organizations to real issues.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Prediction Loses Value Under Radical Uncertainty
- In radical uncertainty prediction loses value and focusing on a central case becomes dangerous.
- Precise calculations from dodgy data become reified and blind organizations to needed provisionality.
Heuristics Are Often Adaptive, Not Just Bias
- Lab findings on bias reveal cognitive mechanisms but don't always translate to real contexts.
- Many heuristics are adaptive tools evolved to cope with sparse data and speed, not mere flaws.
Emotion And Reason Are Intertwined
- Neuroscience undermines a strict system 1 vs system 2 split; emotion and cognition intertwine.
- Emotions recruit attention and cognitive resources, often enabling rapid, effective responses.
