Down Round State of Play Pt.1
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Mar 18, 2026 A brisk temperature check on the AI landscape and who is leading or lagging. A deep look at OpenAI’s consumer experiments, product failures, and a pivot toward coding and business users. A wild story about using AI tools in drug discovery for a dog vaccine. A contrast of Anthropic’s enterprise traction and why developers are flocking to certain models.
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Three Clear Lanes Emerging In AI
- OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have carved distinct strategic lanes in AI with differing end goals and product focuses.
- OpenAI leans consumer-first, Anthropic targets enterprise/coding, and Google embeds AI across its app ecosystem.
OpenAI's Consumer Everything Strategy Hits Practical Walls
- OpenAI is pushing consumer features (Sora, in-app checkout, companionship) to become a mass-market interface for daily life.
- Those bets conflict with commerce complexity and moderation, causing rollbacks like checkout linking to merchants instead.
AI Video Social App Sora Failed To Sustain Usage
- Sora's initial App Store success quickly faded because users didn't want to create AI-video feeds inside a new app.
- OpenAI found most Sora users didn't share videos and engagement dropped from #1 to ~165 in the store.