India & Russia: Between Trust and Tension

There’s a paradox at the heart of the India–Russia relationship.

On one level, there are no direct conflicts of interest. In fact, at a moment like the present, when even trusted partners like the United States appear willing to coerce New Delhi, Moscow seems like a reliable friend. It remains a key defense supplier, and now also an important energy partner, offering deep discounts to keep its own economy afloat. The relationship with Moscow also gives Delhi a degree of maneuverability in the wider Eurasian space.

And yet, there are growing limitations, and increasing costs, that this friendship brings. Beyond the 25% tariff penalty that the Trump administration has imposed on India for buying Russian oil, there are deeper strategic concerns. Russia’s increasing dependence on China raises anxieties in Delhi; its tentative outreach to Pakistan creates unease; and of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to complicate India’s ties with Europe.

All of these issues are likely to return to the headlines come December, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Delhi. But to understand the stakes of that visit, and indeed, the future of this partnership, we need to step back and look at Russia itself: the political system, the worldview of its leaders, and the strategic logic that drives its behaviour.

How stable is the Russian state today? What kind of world order does Moscow want to build? And how does it really see India and the Indo-Pacific amid a world of shifting alignments?

To unpack these questions, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak to Aleksei Zakharov, a Research Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme in New Delhi. Our conversation begins with a look at how Moscow views the world; what kind of an order does it crave? How has the leadership managed economic and political stability while engaging in what seems to be a protracted conflict in Ukraine.

We also discuss how Russia conceives of great power competition between the United States and China? How deep are Moscow’s equities with Beijing? And how does it position itself in the Indo-Pacific, a region where its influence remains limited but its ambitions endure.

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.