Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 112: Time To Get Defensive? With Aahan Menon.
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Dec 3, 2025 
Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research and macro strategist, shares insights on navigating the current market landscape. He discusses the impact of weak US jobs data and worries around AI spending on stock performance. Aahan explores growth versus liquidity dynamics and offers unconventional investment recommendations, including a focus on nominal bonds, TIPS, gold, and commodities. He also touches on the implications of Japan's bond moves and the unique value opportunity in UK equities, making a case for strategic reallocations in today's volatile environment.
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Growth Fine, Liquidity Not Broken
- Growth appears okay but lopsided toward AI CapEx, making acceleration harder.
- Liquidity indicators like SOFR show seasonality and, when aggregated, do not signal a broken financial system.
Consider TIPS And Gold Over Nominal Bonds
- Rotate into alternatives when equities look expensive: consider TIPS, gold, broad commodities, or cash.
- Prefer TIPS over nominal bonds now because real yields and inflation dynamics make TIPS more attractive.
Flat Curve Limits Bond Appeal
- The flat yield curve signals low carry and limited bond return unless a recession forces many more rate cuts.
- Bonds are hard to own absent a clear recessionary outlook.