ChinaTalk Military Revolutions with Ed Luttwak
Edward Luttwak, renowned strategist and historian who advised governments and wrote Coup d'État and The Rise of China Versus the Logic of Strategy, discusses technological step-changes in warfare. He traces formative wartime influences, classical books that shaped his thinking, deterrence psychology toward Iran and China, and contrasts strengths of democracies versus autocracies.
02:51:20
Capability Is Political, Not Only Material
- 'Capax belli' describes whether a nation remains politically and culturally capable of war, not just militarily.
- Many European militaries retain costly forces yet lack political will to employ them effectively.
Design Deterrence From Their Mindset
- Start deterrence by understanding how the enemy thinks and what they fear.
- Design messages and actions that register as credible threats in the enemy's mind.
Target What The Patron Actually Values
- Killing proxies rarely deters their patrons if those patrons value different things.
- To deter Iran, Luttwak argues you must threaten what Persians actually value, not primarily Arab lives.
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Intro
00:00 • 1min
Luttwak’s multicultural childhood and early influences
01:13 • 3min
Family survival in World War II and Jewish leadership
03:52 • 1min
Palermo years: language, Latin, and the cadet corps
05:19 • 3min
Refugee professors and athletic Jewish schooling
08:29 • 1min
Attitudes to the Holocaust and forward-looking survival
09:41 • 5min
Why Luttwak studied war and technology
14:33 • 8min
Churchill as innovator in military technology
22:21 • 3min
From oil consultant to writing Coup d'État handbook
25:04 • 4min
Combat experiences: Israel 1967 and 1973
29:32 • 9min
How technology reshaped warfare historically
38:25 • 4min
Books that illuminate war: Graves, Iliad, and bombing history
42:43 • 6min
Clausewitz, mountain warfare, and levels of war
49:03 • 3min
Ukraine, Gerasimov, and modern operational failures
52:12 • 3min
Surprise, reserves, and volunteer armies
55:33 • 5min
Strategic bombing: action, reaction, and paradoxes
01:00:44 • 3min
The Iliad’s lessons on bravery and human dignity
01:04:01 • 3min
China’s interest in Western classics and Luttwak’s reception
01:07:14 • 13min
Removing war from Europe: consequences for demographics
01:19:47 • 4min
Capax belli: which countries remain war-capable
01:23:49 • 3min
Germany 1890 and the dangers of challenging naval status quo
01:27:04 • 18min
Deterrence basics: deterrence exists in the enemy's mind
01:45:13 • 1min
Deterring Iran and cultural logic
01:46:39 • 8min
Deterring China: autocracy, Xi, and individual decision-making
01:55:08 • 12min
Strengths of democracies versus autocracies
02:07:00 • 3min
Regret and hypothetical careers in military intelligence
02:09:31 • 5min
Historical analogies for modern leaders
02:14:48 • 17min
Recommended readings: Clausewitz, Tacitus, Thucydides
02:31:29 • 5min
AI, satellites, and technology shaping future warfare
02:36:37 • 7min
Personal reflections: Judaism and collective promise
02:43:25 • 8min
Outro
02:51:01 • 3sec
#54818
From Vienna to Versailles
L.C.B. Seaman
This authoritative and concise text explores the story of European political relations from the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars through the Vienna settlement to the Versailles Treaty.
It provides background on the 1815 settlement, critiques opposing views on its success in preventing war, and analyzes the complex interplay of liberalism, nationalism, and power politics leading to the reshaping of Europe by figures like Napoleon III and Bismarck.
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The Rise of China versus the Logic of Strategy
Lutwak
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The grand strategy of the Soviet Union
Edward Luttwak
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Histories
Herodotus
The Histories by Herodotus is a foundational work in Western historical literature.
It chronicles the Greco-Persian Wars (499–479 BCE) and provides a comprehensive background on the rise and organization of the Persian Empire.
The work is divided into nine books, each named after one of the Muses.
Herodotus describes the conflicts between the Greeks and Persians, including key battles such as Marathon, Thermopylae, Salamis, Plataea, and Mycale.
He also delves into the cultural, ethnographical, geographical, and historiographical aspects of the civilizations involved, offering a rich tapestry of historical and mythological narratives.
Despite some criticisms for including legendary accounts, much of Herodotus's work has been validated by modern historians and archaeologists.
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On war
Carl Von Clausewitz
Carl von Clausewitz's "On War" is a seminal work on military strategy, exploring the complex interplay of military, political, and social factors in warfare.
It emphasizes the importance of understanding the nature of war as a dynamic and unpredictable phenomenon.
The book delves into various aspects of military strategy, including the role of chance, the importance of morale, and the relationship between war and politics.
Its enduring influence is evident in its continued relevance to military studies, international relations, and strategic thinking.
It remains a cornerstone of military theory.
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Coup d'état: a practical handbook
Edward Luttwak
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River War
Winston Churchill
The River War is a vivid historical account by Winston Churchill of the Anglo-Egyptian forces' reconquest of the Sudan between 1896 and 1899.
The book details the background to the war, including the murder of General Charles George Gordon and the political reactions in England.
Churchill participated in the Battle of Omdurman and reflects on the modernization of warfare during this period.
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The Peloponnesian War
Thucydides
Thucydides' "History of the Peloponnesian War" is a seminal work of ancient Greek history, offering a detailed account of the conflict between Athens and Sparta.
It's renowned for its meticulous detail, insightful analysis of political strategy, and enduring relevance to the study of international relations.
The narrative explores themes of power, ambition, and the human cost of war, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of conflict and diplomacy.
Thucydides' focus on human agency and rational decision-making sets his work apart from earlier historical accounts.
His work remains a cornerstone of historical and political thought.
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Goodbye To All That
Robert Graves
Good-Bye to All That is a candid and critical memoir that explores Robert Graves' early life, his experiences as a soldier in World War I, and his post-war struggles.
The book provides a raw portrayal of trench warfare and the psychological impact of the war on soldiers.
It also delves into Graves' growing disillusionment with English society and his eventual departure from England.
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The Iliad
Homer
The Iliad is an epic poem attributed to Homer, set during the Trojan War. It begins in the ninth year of the war, where a quarrel between King Agamemnon and the warrior Achilles sets off a chain of events.
The poem explores themes of heroism, honor, and fate as it describes the battles and interactions between Greek warriors like Achilles, Diomedes, and Odysseus, and Trojan warriors like Hector and Paris.
The story is interspersed with divine interventions from Greek gods and goddesses, influencing the outcome of the war.
The poem culminates with Achilles' reconciliation with Agamemnon and his subsequent rage against the Trojans, leading to the death of Hector and the eventual funeral rites for Patroclus and Hector.
Today’s guest is the legendary strategist Edward Luttwak — the Machiavelli of Maryland. He’s consulted for presidents, prime ministers, and secretaries of defense, and authored magnificent books on Byzantine history, a guide to planning a successful coup, and an opus on the logic of strategy and the rise of China. He raises cows, too.
We recorded this episode in Feb of 2024.
Thanks to the Hudson Institute for sponsoring this episode.
Our conversation today covers…
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Luttwak’s childhood and formative encounters with war, including an early fascination with the mafia in Sicily,
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Technological step-changes in warfare,
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Books that shaped Luttwak’s view of war, from Clausewitz to the Iliad,
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The costs of “removing war from Europe” post-1945,
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China’s strategic missteps,
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The psychology of deterrence, including what kind of Middle East policy would actually deter Iran,
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The strengths of democracies vs. autocracies.
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