Exchanges Oil Market Impacts from Iran
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Mar 2, 2026 
Daan Struyven, Co-head of Global Commodities Research and Head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs, offers short takes on oil market moves after Iran strikes. He walks through flow disruptions, insurance and export impacts, spare capacity limits, and how markets price risk. He also flags strategic reserve use, gold as a hedge, and key signals to watch next.
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Strait Of Hormuz Flow Collapse Not Production Shock
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged because shippers are avoiding the route after reports of damaged ships and soaring insurance premia.
- Actual production hits are smaller so far (Iraq ~0.2 mb/d down; Saudi refined products ~0.6 mb/d refinery shut) but exports and flows are the main disruption.
Price Upside Is Highly Nonlinear With Duration
- Goldman Sachs' base case keeps Brent falling to $60 by Q4 if no sustained supply disruption occurs, but current prices include a sizeable risk premium.
- Models show a full one-month closure of the Strait could add roughly $12/bbl; longer closures risk nonlinear, much larger spikes and demand destruction into triple digits.
Market Pricing Implies Four Week Closure Risk
- The market was pricing a meaningful disruption: fair value Brent without sustained disruption is about $65 while market traded near $78, implying a ~$13/bbl risk premium.
- That premium equates to market pricing roughly a full Strait closure for about four weeks.