The Morning Brief US–Israel vs Iran: The War That Could Ignite the Middle East
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Mar 2, 2026 Pranab Dhal Samanta, Executive Editor (Politics) at The Economic Times and veteran political journalist, offers expert analysis on West Asia and Iran. He walks through escalation dynamics and containment risks. He discusses US aims, Iran’s internal stability, military hazards, oil and Hormuz market shocks, and India’s diplomatic and evacuation dilemmas.
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Regime Change Is The Core U.S. Goal
- U.S. strategic aim centers on effecting regime change in Iran rather than a limited punitive strike.
- Pranab Dhal Samanta argues Trump and Israel seek leadership removal, but Iran's system and succession mechanisms make quick change unlikely.
Domestic Politics Drive U.S. Escalation Decisions
- U.S. domestic politics shape escalation appetite and define when Washington declares victory.
- Pranab links Trump's need for a political win to midterms and past tactics like removing foreign leaders to claim success domestically.
Gulf States’ Tacit Role And Vulnerability Limit Escalation
- Gulf states face a tradeoff between tacit cooperation with the U.S./Israel and vulnerability to Iranian retaliation.
- Pranab warns Gulf regimes will resist prolonged hits because domestic stability and economy limit their tolerance.