Unhedged Energy prices up, markets down
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Mar 3, 2026 
Jamie Smyth, FT energy editor and self-described Oil Nerd, explains how Iran strikes reshaped market expectations and lifted energy prices. He discusses why oil rose but did not spike to $100, risks to the Strait of Hormuz and LNG/refinery infrastructure, Europe and Asia’s gas vulnerability, and US policy tools to calm markets.
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Infrastructure Damage Creates Lasting Energy Shortages
- Infrastructure damage matters more than temporary chokepoint closures because plants and refineries take time to repair.
- Jamie Smyth contrasted Hormuz closures with blown-up LNG plants, which cause long-lasting supply loss and price pain.
Hormuz Is The Price-Setting Choke Point
- The Strait of Hormuz is the crucial choke point for about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, making it disproportionately influential on prices.
- Jamie Smyth warned a multi-week effective closure would become a serious, unprecedented problem for global supply.
Gulf Supply Is The Market's Marginal Barrel
- Gulf export capability is the marginal supply the world turns to when demand tightens, so disruptions there move prices more than percentages suggest.
- Jamie Smyth explained OPEC has spare capacity but can't necessarily export past a blocked Hormuz, amplifying risk.