Odd Lots Lots More with Claudia Sahm
Jan 30, 2024
Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, delves into the rising US unemployment rate and its implications for her Sahm Rule, an early indicator of recessions. She addresses the challenges economists face with data accuracy and discusses how various income groups altered their savings habits post-COVID. Claudia also shares personal experiences about navigating online discourse and the unique challenges women face in economic discussions, highlighting the importance of diversity and resilience in the field.
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Sahm Rule Explained
- The Sahm Rule, an economic indicator, signals recessions early based on rising unemployment.
- It helps policymakers implement timely fiscal responses like stimulus checks.
Defending the Sahm Rule
- Claudia Sahm is often questioned about the Sahm Rule's accuracy, even by those who misunderstand it.
- Some suggest she doubts her own rule when acknowledging its limitations in the unique current economic climate.
Unemployment Nuances
- The current unemployment rate increase isn't solely due to reduced labor demand.
- Increased worker supply and slower hiring are contributing factors.