Peter St Onge Podcast Ep 162 Weekly Roundup: Supreme Court Strikes down Tariffs
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Mar 2, 2026 A brisk roundup of recent Supreme Court and tariff developments and how presidents can sidestep limits using other trade laws. A clear look at Q4 GDP, shutdown effects, and why growth may stay strong into 2026. A dive into trade deficits, gold imports, and how tariffs reshape balances. A tour of bipartisan housing reform proposals. A debate on whether AI kills jobs or creates new higher-paying roles.
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Supreme Court Removed One Tariff Tool But Left Others
- The Supreme Court struck down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for tariffs but left other trade powers intact.
- Trump can now reimpose or tighten barriers using Sections 301, 122, 232, and 338, expanding non-tariff restrictions and licenses.
Tariff Refunds Could Blow Up The Deficit
- The court's decision could force refunds of roughly $300 billion in collected tariffs and add to the deficit if lower courts order repayments.
- That refund risk makes tariffs costlier and could shift fiscal impact onto taxpayers and deficits.
GDP Held Up After Shutdown Once Adjusted
- Q4 2025 GDP slowed to 1.4% due to a 2-point hit from the government shutdown, but adjusted growth was about 3.5% for the quarter and 2.7% for the year.
- Strong consumer spending and a surge in business investment, especially computers/equipment tied to AI and reshoring, drove the healthy numbers.