The Globalist As Iran protests continue, is US intervention likely? Plus: Myanmar’s election and the fall of Saks
Jan 12, 2026
Dr. Ronan Lee, an expert on Myanmar, discusses the junta's constrained elections and the bleak prospects for the Rohingya amid civil war dynamics. Dr. Marion Mesmer sheds light on NATO's response to tensions in Greenland, revealing potential fractures in collective defense. Tyler Brûlé, founder of Monocle, offers insights on the decline of luxury retailers like Saks, exploring the cultural shift in department-store shopping. Together, they tackle significant global issues shaping the future of democracy and security.
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Election Aims To Win Legitimacy, Not Peace
- Myanmar's election covers roughly half the country and functions to legitimise the junta internationally rather than settle domestic conflict.
- Large swathes remain under opposition control, so the vote entrenches division and prolongs civil war dynamics.
Country Divided, Borders Outside Junta Control
- Opposition groups control significant border territories and most crossings, limiting the junta's reach and reinforcing a de facto partition.
- International neighbours view the vote skeptically, so the election won't end the conflict or prompt mass returns of refugees.
Watch Refugee Flows As The Trigger
- Expect no foreign military intervention in Myanmar absent a mass refugee crisis; external actors lack appetite for direct action.
- Monitor refugee flows—large cross-border displacements are the key trigger that might change foreign responses.
