The David Lin Report Fed Pivots In Unprecedented Economy: How Will Markets Respond Next? | Adam Kobeissi
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Sep 26, 2025 Adam Kobeissi, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of The Kobeissi Letter, discusses the macroeconomic landscape, predicting stock, gold, and Bitcoin surges as the Fed may cut rates despite rising inflation. He explores labor market weakness, the impact of AI on trading, and historical S&P movements post-rate cuts. Kobeissi also warns about tech concentration risks in the S&P, shares insights on younger investors' interests in crypto and gold, and speculates on potential housing market dynamics related to interest rates.
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Fed Cuts With Records Usually Boost Stocks
- Historically, when the Fed cuts with the S&P near record highs, the S&P has ended higher 12 months later.
- Kobeissi cites an average gain near 15% and uses that as a base-case for a higher S&P in 12 months.
Retail Flows Fuel The Rally
- Heavy retail and now institutional inflows are fueling the rally, reducing cash levels across the market.
- High retail participation alone doesn't signal an immediate top; macro drivers can sustain the trend.
Market Dominated By Big Tech
- The market is structurally concentrated: the top 10 stocks are ~41% of S&P market cap.
- Kobeissi views concentration as a trend to monitor, not necessarily a reason to be bearish.