The Intelligence from The Economist Forewarned before armed: how to predict war
Jul 26, 2023
Rosie Blore, International China correspondent, predicts military conflicts by analyzing subtle market signals, particularly regarding Taiwan. Sophie Petter, Paris bureau chief, discusses France's shifting stance on NATO and EU policies and their impact on European security, sparked by the Ukraine crisis. Meanwhile, Paul Markilley, Innovation editor, reveals how scrapyards are evolving into efficient recycling hubs, focusing on electric vehicles and innovative dismantling processes. The conversation blends geopolitical foresight with modernization in automotive recycling.
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Current Likelihood of Invasion
- Currently, an invasion of Taiwan is not imminent.
- However, China has the capability and might invade under certain provocations.
France's Shifting Stance
- France's attitude towards NATO and EU expansion has shifted since the Ukraine invasion.
- They now champion Ukraine's NATO entry and favor expanding EU borders eastward and southward.
France's Historical Stance on NATO
- Historically, France has been wary of NATO expansion, even blocking Ukraine's membership in 2008.
- Macron previously expressed concerns about NATO's effectiveness and provoking Russia.