Ken McElroy Show

$34 Trillion in Trapped Equity: What Happens When Rates Drop?

Feb 24, 2026
Discussion of a frozen housing market and why low listing inventory keeps sales stalled. Exploration of how millions with sub-5% mortgages are sitting on huge, untapped home equity. Analysis of how a drop in interest rates could unlock trillions in equity and shift demand. Practical strategies for investors focused on cash flow now and refinancing opportunities later.
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INSIGHT

Massive Trapped Equity Keeps Sellers Off Market

  • Roughly 70%+ of homeowners sit on mortgages under 5% with large equity, creating a "lock-in" that keeps listings off the market.
  • Ken McElroy highlights roughly $34 trillion of total home equity and many owners refuse to sell because their payments and rates are so low.
ANECDOTE

Sellers Now List Only After They Buy

  • Danille noticed listings are now mostly occupied because sellers wait to buy until after they sell.
  • She contrasts last year when many listings were vacant because sellers bought first and then couldn't sell at expected prices.
INSIGHT

How Much Rates Must Drop To Unlock Market

  • Small rate declines can unlock some movement but rates likely need to fall ~1–2 percentage points to materially free sellers.
  • Danille says ~5% would nudge some families; Ken argues low-fives then mid-fours would trigger big refinancing and moves.
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