People I (Mostly) Admire

17. Emily Oster: “I Am a Woman Who Is Prominently Discussing Vaginas.”

32 snips
Apr 11, 2026
Emily Oster, an economist and Brown professor known for books on pregnancy and parenting and for COVID school data, talks about translating research for parents. She covers pregnancy advice like coffee risks, what science actually shows about breastfeeding, building a school COVID dashboard, and the tradeoffs of remote schooling. She also reflects on public backlash and how economists frame decisions under uncertainty.
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ANECDOTE

How Expecting Better Started As A Personal Project

  • Emily Oster began writing about pregnancy because she was frustrated by patronizing advice and wanted to apply her data skills to her own pregnancy decisions.
  • She sent a book proposal on a whim, pitched it as a hobby while untenured, and turned it into Expecting Better that blends memoir and meta-analysis.
INSIGHT

Why Raw Pregnancy Correlations Mislead

  • Observational correlations often disappear after controlling for confounders like age and nausea, so simple raw links (e.g., coffee and miscarriage) can be misleading.
  • Emily shows that adding relevant controls can drive associations toward zero, implying small or no causal effect.
ADVICE

Frame Decisions By Listing Real Alternatives

  • Frame decisions by specifying realistic alternative options rather than vague 'or not' choices, then commit to a final decision and move on.
  • Example: compare daycare to hiring a nanny, having grandparents care, or quitting work, not just daycare versus nothing.
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