Unpacking Iran’s competing endgames with Brookings Institution’s Thomas Wright

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Mar 14, 2026

Thomas Wright, Brookings foreign policy expert and former NSC senior director, breaks down the widening war in Iran. He maps competing U.S., Israeli, and Iranian endgames. He explores risks of fragmenting Iran, regional spillovers, and how global powers and cutting-edge tech like AI factor into the conflict’s trajectory.

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INSIGHT

Three Competing Endgames In The Iran War

The Iran conflict features three divergent strategies from the U.S., Israel, and Iran rather than a single unified goal.
The U.S. seeks a pragmatic partner or deal, Israel pushes for full regime change, and Iran aims to survive by widening the war to pressure Gulf states and markets.

ADVICE

Try To Stop The War Quickly To Avoid Fragmentation

End the conflict quickly to avoid long-term regional fragmentation and a Syria-like civil war on steroids.
Avoid arming Kurdish enclaves or steps that deliberately break Iran, since that risks a much larger instability and regional intervention.

INSIGHT

This War Was A Strategic Choice With High Opportunity Costs

The war was a choice without urgent necessity and has significant material costs like depleting munitions and air defenses needed elsewhere.
Earlier non-war options (limited strikes, extended timelines, sanctions) could have preserved leverage without creating massive regional risk.

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Ian Bremmer sits down with Thomas Wright, Brookings Institution fellow and former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, to unpack the deepening war in Iran and the divergent strategies shaping it.

What are the possible outcomes for the widening conflict in Iran? What began as a dramatic opening strike has evolved into a far more complex war, with Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran all pursuing different aims. Wright argues this isn’t simply about degrading military capability; it’s about competing endgames that may pull the region in unpredictable directions.

As Wright explains, the United States is hoping for a pragmatic partner inside Iran, while Israel pushes for full regime change. “Trump couldn’t care less if Larijani runs Iran. The Israelis do… They’re going to go full bore for regime change,” he says. At the same time, efforts to fragment the country risk creating “a much bigger problem… a Syria civil war on steroids.”

The conversation also examines how other global players are responding. Europe has been muted, trying to accommodate the US, while China and Russia tread carefully, balancing economic and strategic interests without directly confronting Washington. Wright also discusses domestic implications, including the Pentagon’s evolving relationship with Silicon Valley and how frontier technologies like AI are intersecting with national security concerns.

Looking ahead, Wright outlines both best-and worst-case scenarios — from the emergence of a more legitimate leadership to the specter of fragmentation that could intensify regional instability. With no clear exit ramp in sight, this conversation explores what might come next and why the endgame of this war remains so uncertain.

Host: Ian Bremmer

Guest: Thomas Wright

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