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“Unrealized” Capital Gains Tax is Economic Suicide

whatshot 156 snips

Feb 18, 2026

Guest

Ben Carlson

Ben Carlson, head of institutional asset management and author of A Wealth of Common Sense, offers market perspective and witty takes. They discuss sector rotation, corporate earnings strength, AI-driven CapEx and productivity, international and small-cap value outperformance, and a sharp critique of unrealized capital gains tax proposals. Conversations also touch on Apple’s AI prospects and shifting global capital flows.

01:09:45

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insights

INSIGHT

Earnings Growth Is Broad And Real

Earnings season is showing broad, double-digit EPS growth driven by real revenue increases versus expectations.
Revenue beats are meaningful because revenue can't be manufactured like buybacks or accounting tweaks.

insights

INSIGHT

AI CapEx Can Translate To Real Productivity

AI-driven productivity gains may explain continued profit margin expansion despite heavy CapEx.
If companies report AI cost savings, the CapEx narrative could validate multi-year earnings upside.

insights

INSIGHT

Tangible Assets Are Rallying With CapEx

Industrials and heavy-asset sectors are posting outsized earnings growth alongside tech.
This suggests a rotation toward tangible, non-disruptible businesses benefiting from CapEx cycles.

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Earnings season is surprisingly strong

03:34 • 2min

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Corporate resilience through crises

05:08 • 29sec

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FactSet data and forward estimates

05:37 • 3min

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AI capex and productivity as profit drivers

08:40 • 3min

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Sector earnings breakdown

11:22 • 2min

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Beat rates, revenue surprises, and market reactions

13:48 • 2min

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Sources of earnings growth and margins

15:30 • 47sec

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Earnings growth vs. market returns historically

16:17 • 1min

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Is the rotation away from MAG7 real?

17:28 • 3min

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Halo: heavy assets, low obsolescence theme

20:12 • 3min

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CapEx shift and West vs. West Coast mentality

22:53 • 4min

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Netherlands unrealized capital gains tax critique

27:12 • 4min

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Alternative wealth taxation ideas

31:11 • 2min

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Inequality, AI, and historical analogies

33:01 • 5min

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Growing wealth and the hollowed middle

37:49 • 39sec

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Ex-US trade gains and surprising leadership

38:27 • 2min

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Five-year international outperformance

40:32 • 3min

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Dollar moves, weak-dollar impact on markets

43:55 • 5min

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Europe political reforms as catalyst

49:13 • 3min

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The viral expert phenomenon on AI

52:31 • 2min

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Which software businesses survive AI disruption

54:28 • 6min

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Apple's CapEx stance and agentic Siri thesis

01:00:08 • 7min

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Liberation Day lows to sector rebounds

• Mentioned in 11 episodes

A wealth of common sense

Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in Any Investment Plan

Ben Carlson

This book sheds a refreshing light on investing by showing how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. It explains that complexity is often used to sell unnecessary financial products, and instead advocates for a deeper understanding of conventional options. The book provides insights on how to build a portfolio that makes sense for individual situations, exploit stock market volatility, and avoid common investment traps. It stresses the importance of having a plan, diversification, and long-term common sense in investing, and offers practical advice on separating meaningful information from the meaningless in the complex financial markets.

#424

• Mentioned in 69 episodes

The Jungle

Upton Sinclair

Published in 1906, 'The Jungle' follows the life of Lithuanian immigrant Jurgis Rudkus and his family as they navigate the brutal realities of working-class life in Chicago's meatpacking district, known as Packingtown. The novel highlights issues such as public health hazards, extreme poverty, and the cruel treatment of workers and animals. Despite Sinclair's intention to expose labor abuses, the public reaction primarily focused on the sanitation issues in the meatpacking industry, leading to significant legislative changes, including the passage of the U.S. Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act.

#68

• Mentioned in 226 episodes

The great Gatsby

F. Scott Fitzgerald

Published in 1925, 'The Great Gatsby' is a tragic love story, a mystery, and a social commentary on American life during the Jazz Age. The novel is narrated by Nick Carraway, who moves to Long Island and becomes entangled in the lives of his wealthy and mysterious neighbor, Jay Gatsby, and Gatsby's obsession to win back his first love, Daisy Buchanan. The story delves into themes of honesty, the temptations of wealth, and the struggle to escape the past, ultimately reflecting on the disintegration of the American Dream.

#364

• Mentioned in 77 episodes

The grapes of wrath

John Steinbeck

Published in 1939, 'The Grapes of Wrath' is a powerful and poignant novel by John Steinbeck. It tells the story of the Joad family, Oklahoma tenant farmers who are forced to leave their home after the devastating effects of the Dust Bowl and the Great Depression. The novel follows their arduous journey along Route 66 to California, where they face numerous hardships, including poverty, exploitation, and the loss of family members. The book explores themes of family, survival, and the struggle for human dignity in the face of overwhelming adversity. It also delves into the broader social and economic issues of the time, highlighting the conflict between the powerful and the powerless. Steinbeck's work is known for its vivid portrayal of the human condition and its impact on American literature and society.

Join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance! Tonight we talk sector rotation, international stocks, capital gains tax, Apple, and much more!

This episode is sponsored by Public. Find out more at https://public.com/WAYT

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Public Disclosure: Paid endorsement. Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Not investment advice. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at http://public.com/disclosures/ga. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and investment values may rise or fall. See terms of match program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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