Foreign Policy Live How High Could Oil Prices Go?
Mar 26, 2026
Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy and former Obama energy official. He maps how Strait of Hormuz disruptions and facility attacks could push oil far higher. He weighs short versus prolonged conflict, repair timelines, who gains from price spikes, China’s defenses, and broader supply-chain and policy tradeoffs.
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Expect Demand Destruction As Prices Rise
- Prices will need to rise enough to destroy demand (airlines fly less, consumers drive less) to rebalance a multi‑million barrel shortfall.
- Bordoff points to visible measures already in poor countries like empty stadiums and school closures as early demand destruction.
Sanctions Waivers Boost Russia And Iran Revenues
- High oil prices and easing sanctions help Russia and Iran monetize more oil quickly and at higher prices.
- Bordoff explains waivers and a shadow fleet let Russia and Iran increase exports and capture increased revenue.
China's Electification Strategy Reduces Vulnerability
- China benefits from an energy security strategy built on electrification, domestic supply, and large strategic reserves.
- Bordoff notes China has electrified a greater share of its economy, sells half its new cars as EVs, and holds a billion‑barrel reserve.