Bloomberg Talks CFTC Chairman Michael Selig Talks Prediction Markets
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Mar 10, 2026 
Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, explains the rise of prediction markets and their economic roles. He discusses regulatory safeguards, how sports markets mirror derivatives, and risks like insider trading and violent‑outcome contracts. He also covers Polymarket’s U.S. status and the push to bring blockchain exchanges onshore.
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Prediction Markets Fill An Information Trust Gap
- Public trust in traditional media is eroding and people are turning to social media and prediction markets for information.
- Michael S. Selig says prediction markets offer new informational products from sports to geopolitics and can be beneficial to society.
Exchanges Must Vet Contracts Not The Regulator
- Do not rely on the regulator to pick which event contracts are appropriate; exchanges must evaluate product integrity.
- SROs must ensure products are not readily susceptible to manipulation and certify listings to the CFTC.
Certain Event Contracts Carry High Insider Risk
- Some prediction contracts are particularly vulnerable to insider trading and manipulation.
- Selig cites the Mr. Beast example where an employee traded on knowledge of video publication timing, showing insider risk exists in these markets.