The Intelligence from The Economist Check in Kyiv: prospects for peace?
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Feb 12, 2026 
Oliver Carroll, Ukraine correspondent with frontline reporting on peace talks and battlefield shifts. Claire McQue, Latin America reporter who joined coca-lab raids in the Amazon. Sonny Loughran, Britain writer who contrasts crime data with social-media panic in London. They discuss prospects for a ceasefire, the realities of coca eradication efforts, and how online narratives reshape urban crime perceptions.
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Negotiations Show Unusual Momentum
- For the first time negotiators see real movement toward a pause in the Ukraine war, including talk of demilitarised zones and partial security guarantees.
- Oliver Carroll estimates a roughly 50-50 chance of a pause or outline this year, perhaps as soon as March, but many legal and political hurdles remain.
Security And Territory Are The Hard Bits
- Core sticking points remain security guarantees and territory, with Russia pressing for Ukrainian withdrawal in parts of Donbass.
- Talks are circling compromises like demilitarised zones to avoid indigestible positions for both societies.
War Shifts From Frontline To Infrastructure
- The battlefield is a mixed picture: Russia makes slow advances at heavy cost while Ukraine endures strikes on energy and infrastructure.
- Long-range drone attacks and strikes on civilian infrastructure have escalated civilian suffering and strategic strain.