Bulwark Takes Trump’s Polls Stink. Will SOTU Turn Them Around?
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Feb 24, 2026 A brisk preview of tonight’s State of the Union and the political stakes wrapped around Trump’s tumbling poll numbers. They probe collapsing support among independents and the widening generic ballot gap. Discussion of tariffs, the Supreme Court ruling, and why the economy is not rescuing his standing. They also weigh immigration pivots, ICE controversies, DHS funding fights, and rising tensions with Iran.
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Adequate Economy Doesn't Save Approval
- The economy isn't disastrous but has slowed (growth ~2.8% to 2.2%, inflation modestly down), yet Trump's numbers still fell.
- Bill Kristol argues this proves economic data alone won't rescue his standing.
Tariff Turmoil Hurts Trump Politically
- Tariffs are politically unpopular and the Supreme Court decision throwing out key tariff authority worsens Trump's position.
- Kristol warns repeated tariff changes create uncertainty that may hurt both politics and the real economy.
Expectation Gap From Campaign Promises
- Trump's campaign promises set high expectations that haven't materialized, creating a perception gap even without a recession.
- Andrew Egger says voters feel disappointed because Trump's promised 'golden age' hasn't arrived.