The David Lin Report

'Surge In Unemployment' Coming, Investor Reveals Where To Hide | Michael Gayed

Apr 28, 2026
Michael Gayed, portfolio manager and founder of The Lead-Lag Report, explains market positioning amid AI-driven change. He discusses why software stocks lag, where to hide in bonds and commodities, oil and housing signals, and which sectors could win from deregulation. He warns of AI-related job disruption and highlights favored areas like emerging markets, crypto, and niche growth plays.
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INSIGHT

Private Credit Suffered Because Software Loans Blew Up

  • Software sector and private credit collapsed partly because many loans were made to software companies now at risk from AI.
  • Gayed views software overselling as mostly justified but expects bottoming and selective rebound opportunities.
INSIGHT

Markets Rallied As Iran Risk Fell And Deregulation Rose

  • Market's recent rally reflects investor numbness to the Iran conflict and a shift back to deregulation narratives under Trump.
  • Gayed links the rally to a perceived deal-making/negotiation dynamic that reduced geopolitical risk premium.
INSIGHT

Leadership Often Shifts To The Most Lagging Areas

  • The market's cushion after shocks tends to show up in the most-lagging areas like emerging markets and small caps.
  • Gayed highlights momentum in emerging markets and small caps as potential leadership outside big-cap tech.
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