What Bitcoin Did Did the Bitcoin Bull Market Just End? | Checkmate & Alec Dejanovic
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Nov 24, 2025 
Checkmate, a Bitcoin analyst and co-founder of CheckOnChain, along with Alec Dejanovic, also a co-founder of CheckOnChain, dive into the intricacies of Bitcoin's current market dynamics. They discuss the massive sell-off by long-term holders and the absorption of that sell pressure by banks and sovereigns. Checkmate reveals that 70% of Bitcoin's cost basis sits above $85K, while the true market mean is at $82K. The conversation also touches on market psychology, historical bottom formations, and the implications of ETFs reshaping Bitcoin's landscape.
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From Glassnode To CheckOnChain
- Checkmate and Alec started together at Glassnode and later built CheckOnChain from scratch.
- They taught themselves coding, lived together, and iteratively built their charting platform and newsletter.
This Cycle Feels Like A Great Rotation
- The 'Great Rotation' frames this cycle as early holders liquidating into new hands rather than a classic four-year bull.
- Massive spot sell-side has required large, price-insensitive buyers to absorb supply.
True Market Mean At ~$82K
- The 'true market mean' concept centers active investors' cost basis and currently sits at ~$82K.
- Price oscillates around this mean and ETFs' average inflow cost aligns closely with it, making 82K a gravitational level.
