NatSec Matters Exclusive - The Iranian End Game: Richard Nephew
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Mar 4, 2026 Richard Nephew, former National Security Council director for Iran and current scholar, analyzes Iran’s strategic behavior and nuclear risks. He discusses how the regime might retaliate regionally, leadership succession scenarios, and risks of fragmentation and proliferation. Short, sharp takes on strikes, energy pressure, and the Straits of Hormuz’s de facto closure.
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Protests Depend On Visible External Support
- Large-scale protests could re-emerge but protesters will wait to see credible external backing.
- Nephew notes Iranian security forces remain armed and aggressive, limiting immediate street returns despite anger.
Iran Uses Energy Attacks To Maximize Political Pressure
- Iran's regional strikes aim to show resolve and broaden pain to force external pressure on the U.S.
- Nephew says targeting civilian energy and Gulf infrastructure signals this is a 'center of the table' moment for Tehran.
Threats and Insurance Panic Can Close Hormuz Without Mines
- Iran has effectively closed the Straits of Hormuz through threats and insurance impacts without large-scale mining.
- Nephew highlights shipping firms and insurers pulling back as a cheap, effective lever for Tehran.