FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: Business stress is rising - are insolvencies next?
Apr 14, 2026
Ivan Colquhoun, Chief Economist at CreditorWatch, provides expert analysis on business risk and insolvency drivers. He discusses rising energy-driven stress and how oil shocks feed into business costs. He explains why small firms and sole traders are most exposed and contrasts short oil-price blips with prolonged shocks and their broader economic effects.
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Preexisting Business Stress Concentrated In Transport And Retail
- Business stress was already rising before the oil shock due to weaker demand and higher rates.
- CreditorWatch saw stress concentrated in transport, retail and utilities with insolvency trends reversing late 2025.
Duration Of Oil Shock Determines Recession Risk
- The economic impact of an oil shock depends on duration; a short disruption causes a few-month wobble but an extended closure risks recession.
- Ivan contrasts two bookends: quick resolution leads to temporary weakness, long disruption (months) pushes prices to $125–$150 and could cause recession.
Sole Traders Hold Disproportionate Tax Debt Risk
- Sole traders and newer SMEs hold a disproportionate share of large ATO tax debts and have weaker cash reserves.
- CreditorWatch links this to COVID-era business formation and ageing-gig-economy trends, making them more vulnerable to shocks.