Bullish For Rest Of 2025, But Bearish For 2026 | Michael Howell

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Aug 3, 2025

Michael Howell, Founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, dives into his expertise on global liquidity and financial markets. He discusses the recent liquidity surge and warns of a looming refinancing crisis that could impact stability by 2026. Howell examines the interdependence of debt cycles and liquidity, highlighting concerns over collateral markets and bond volatility. He offers insights into the 10-year Treasury yield, emphasizing cautious optimism while stressing the importance of strategic asset allocation amidst potential market corrections.

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INSIGHT

Speculation Marks Cycle Peak

Market speculation often marks the late phase of the liquidity cycle with frothy asset prices.
The term 'speculation' signals a risk-on phase where caution should increase approaching cycle end.

INSIGHT

Cycle Warning Signs Around 2026

Historical cycles show easing supported by a weaker dollar, ending with bond market selloffs.
A similar liquidity cycle peak may occur around 2026, signaling increased risk.

INSIGHT

Central Bank Easing Supports Liquidity

Majority of central banks are currently easing monetary policy, helping liquidity remain elevated.
China's stop-go policies cause short-term volatility, but liquidity injections remain substantial.

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In his appearance at Thoughtful Money's Spring online conference back in March, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, warned of an oncoming liquidity air pocket.Which was why the market's subsequent plunge of nearly 20% in the following month wasn't a surprise to him.So, where does he see liquidity headed for the rest of 2025?To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man himself.

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