Make Me Smart The humanitarian risks of a fertilizer shock
Mar 26, 2026
Michael Werz, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies food security and climate, explains how disruptions in Gulf shipping are shaking fertilizer supplies. He outlines which regions are most at risk, describes how energy shocks cascade into food-price crises, and argues for diversification, regional coordination, and investment in resilient food systems.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fertilizer Trade Relies On The Strait Of Hormuz
- Global fertilizer flows and energy costs are tightly linked, creating rapid worldwide impacts from regional shocks.
- Michael Werz explains ~1/3 of global fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz and production is highly energy intensive, so disruptions quickly ripple into food systems.
Energy Price Spikes Translate Directly Into Bread Prices
- Rising energy prices amplify food inflation by raising costs across fertilizer, irrigation, transport, storage, and processing.
- Werz highlights Egypt as vulnerable where bread supplies provide 30–40% of daily calories, so higher energy equals higher political risk.
Supply Shock Effects Show Up Next Season And Compound With El Niño
- Shortages won't necessarily hit instantly but will affect the next agricultural season and compound with climate risks like El Niño.
- Werz warns El Niño (60–70% probability) could drive droughts, worsening fertilizer-induced supply shortfalls in late-year crops.