Oh God, What Now? Trump’s deadly Iran gamble – Special from This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Mar 2, 2026
Paul Salem, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and founder of the Carnegie Middle East Center, gives on-the-ground geopolitical analysis from Beirut. He unpacks why the US struck Iran now and how Iran’s leadership losses and proxy networks shape the conflict. He maps regional economic and military pressures, risks of prolonged war, and the hard realities of seeking regime change.
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Gulf States Face Expensive Defences Against Cheap Iranian Attacks
- Gulf states have invested heavily in air defence but face an economic mismatch as Iran uses cheaper missiles and drones.
- Salem explains this shocks their safe-haven economic model and could push them toward tougher action on Iran.
Straits Of Hormuz Shutdown Hits Global Energy And Politics
- The Straits of Hormuz are a critical choke point carrying ~15% of global oil and ~20% of LNG, and shipping stopped due to war risk.
- Salem reports tankers paused for days and oil/gas prices jumped ~20%, pressuring President Trump.
Iran Uses Proxies Widely But Their Strategic Value Is Limited
- Iran activated proxies like Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and potentially the Houthis, but these proxies now play a different role than defending the homeland.
- Salem says Hezbollah struck Israel prompting heavy Israeli response while proxies attack U.S. bases regionally.