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Why Oil Could Reshape the US-China Relationship | Louis-Vincent Gave

18 snips
Mar 12, 2026
Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and macro strategist at Gavekal Research, brings sharp global macro and energy expertise. He explores how oil and Middle East tensions could reshape US–China ties. Short takes cover Asia’s fuel dependence, China’s relative resilience, Strait of Hormuz risk, market volatility, and which sectors might win or lose.
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INSIGHT

Energy Intensity Determines Shock Exposure

  • Energy intensity shapes macro vulnerability so oil shocks hit some economies far harder than others.
  • Louis-Vincent Gave notes China is only ~18% oil-based versus the US ~35%, and China has widespread electrification and public transit reducing transport sensitivity.
INSIGHT

Allies Were Caught Off Guard By U.S. Moves

  • U.S. actions surprised allies by upending their energy balances without consultation, increasing regional frustration.
  • Gave contrasts China's eight-year strategy of stockpiling and de-Westernizing supply chains with allies left unprepared.
INSIGHT

China's Calculated Support For Iran

  • China supports Iran pragmatically for cheap energy and influence but won't risk major conflict with the United States.
  • Gave explains China bought discounted oil, brokered Gulf détente, promised large Iran investments that never materialized due to geopolitics.
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