Reuters Morning Bid Oil's not well
Mar 17, 2026
Crude oil surges back to $100 as Middle East tensions flare and markets reassess risk. Global central banks face a pivotal week with rate moves and hawkish signals under renewed inflation pressure. Semiconductor wafer shortages may persist into 2030, complicating tech supply chains and AI-driven demand. Layoffs and AI restructuring ripple through tech markets.
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Middle East Tensions Keep Oil Above $100
- Oil has returned above $100 a barrel driven by Iranian attacks on Gulf facilities and tankers, keeping upward pressure on markets.
- Mike Dolan links persistent drones and missile threats plus stalled naval protection plans to sustained price support above $100.
Oil Shock Forces Central Bank Recalibration
- Central banks face renewed inflation pressure from the oil shock, prompting recalibration rather than uniform policy moves.
- Mike Dolan notes Australia's rate hike reflects misestimated neutral rates and that oil accelerates tightening decisions.
Use Fed Projections As The Policy Signal
- Watch the Fed's quarterly projections for a hawkish tilt as a signalling tool instead of immediate rate moves.
- Mike Dolan explains one policymaker shifting 2026 rate expectations could imply no cuts this year without changing policy now.