The Foreign Affairs Interview Will the Cease-Fire With Iran Hold?
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Apr 8, 2026 
Suzanne Maloney, Brookings vice president and former White House and State Department adviser, explains Iran’s resilience and who really runs its security apparatus. She breaks down how control of the Strait of Hormuz shifted leverage. She assesses whether the brief cease-fire favors Iran, the limits of a two-week negotiation, and the roles of China and regional actors.
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U.S. Misread Iran's Resilience
- The Trump administration underestimated Iran's institutional resilience and miscalculated that decapitating leadership would collapse the regime.
- Iran's endurance, especially its ability to continue retaliatory strikes and leverage the Strait of Hormuz, forced Washington to seek an off-ramp quickly.
Hormuz Became Iran's Strategic Lever
- Control of the Strait of Hormuz proved a decisive strategic lever that shifted urgency onto the United States.
- Disruptions to oil, LNG, fertilizer, and helium imposed global economic pressure that hastened diplomatic concessions.
Iran's Leadership Functioned Under Fire
- Despite heavy strikes and leadership losses, Iran maintained command-and-control through hardened Revolutionary Guard figures.
- Muhammad Bakr Qalibaf (parliament speaker with IRGC background) and remaining Guard networks coordinated continued military and diplomatic responses.