The DeFi Report Our Outlook for 2026
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Jan 7, 2026 Explore the intriguing outlook for 2026, focusing on tightening liquidity and shifting fiscal flows. Discover why rate cuts might not be bullish for crypto despite market expectations. Uncover insights on Bitcoin's sensitivity to real rates, labor market trends, and the current real estate shift towards buyers. As they analyze the crypto cycle, expect discussions on a potential downside and the triggers that could change market dynamics. Geopolitical factors also play a crucial role, potentially impacting financial stability.
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Framework For Convicted Crypto Investing
- Anchor investments to data, macro context, and long-term cycle frameworks.
- Combine on-chain signals with macro liquidity views before making conviction bets.
Fiscal Shift Reduces Deficit On Margin
- Fiscal policy shifted in 2025 with slightly lower deficits driven by tariffs and less public hiring.
- That shift pulls capital away from public-sector stimulus toward private-sector activity.
2026 Mirrors 2022 But With Reverse Drivers
- 2026's transition resembles 2022 but with opposite fiscal drivers: now less government spend, then it was more.
- Capital flows are shifting and require rate cuts to support private-sector lending demand.
