Hub Podcasts One year of Trump’s tariffs—are they working?
Apr 2, 2026
A deep dive into the first year of major tariff changes and how they reshaped global trade patterns. Discussion of uneven tariff impacts that disrupted supply chains and shifted sourcing away from China. Examination of effects on Canadian exports and why the trade deficit and manufacturing jobs did not rebound. A critique of vague policing rhetoric and calls for concrete accountability and security measures.
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Tariff Regime Is Highly Distortionary
- Trump's tariffs tripled the US average tariff rate from ~3% to ~13%, with China facing >30% and metals hitting 40–50%.
- The Trade Restrictiveness Index rose more than the average tariff because highly uneven rates force costly resource reallocations across sectors and supply chains.
Tariffs Reroute Supply Chains Not Reshore Them
- Total U.S. imports barely fell overall, but imports from China dropped ~32% while imports from Taiwan, Vietnam and others rose ~15%.
- The effect was rerouting supply chains through third countries rather than reshoring production to the U.S.
Canada Suffered Broad Export Declines
- Canadian exports to the U.S. fell ~10% in real terms despite low average tariffs due to heavy exposure in steel, aluminum, and autos.
- Canada's declines were broader than Mexico's, implying a bilateral chill beyond tariff schedules.