What Trump got wrong about Iran, what the IDF got wrong about Hezbollah: Amos Harel on wars with no exit strategy

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Apr 6, 2026

Amos Harel, a senior defense analyst specializing in Israeli military affairs, breaks down the Iran war and the Lebanon front. He discusses Tehran-Hezbollah coordination, why decisive victory seems out of reach, rising public fatigue in Israel, stretched IDF resources, and how rival groups now aim to survive rather than win outright.

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INSIGHT

Hezbollah Coordinates Directly With Iran

Israel's northern front is coordinated with Iran and timed attacks show active command links between Tehran and Hezbollah.
Amos Harel cites Haifa strike and coordinated rocket timing as evidence that Hezbollah's command networks are functioning with Iranian coordination.

INSIGHT

IDF Sees No Path To Full Disarmament

The IDF admits current operations won't fully disarm Hezbollah, turning the campaign into a prolonged war of attrition.
Harel notes ~100 rockets per day capability and that a senior officer said bluntly this won't lead to final defeat.

INSIGHT

Regional Enemies Aim To Survive Not Prevail

Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas now pursue survival rather than decisive victory, aiming to 'win by not losing.'
Harel explains Iranian strategy shifted after heavy blows: endurance and remaining standing are the primary goals.

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As the war with Iran drags on and the conflict with Hezbollah intensifies, a growing number of Israelis are “losing faith” in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promises of a decisive victory, Haaretz senior defense analyst Amos Harel said on the Haaretz Podcast.

IDF senior officers admitted this week that Israel underestimated Hezbollah’s remaining capabilities following the November 2024 cease-fire, Harel said.

At the moment, he said, “It's clear to anybody watching this carefully that it's hard to reach a final victory again against Hezbollah. Hezbollah may no longer be the army of terror that it was in 2023, but it is capable of launching 100 rockets a day,” while coordinating their attacks with their Iranian sponsors, in a conflict that has now surpassed the length of the second Lebanon war.

In his conversation on the podcast, Harel noted that Israel’s enemies – Iran, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – now share a common war philosophy: “You win by not losing.”

“At one point, Hamas assumed that it could defeat Israel. So did Iran. Now, after getting knocked so hard by Israel and the U.S., Iranian ambitions are different. What they're talking about is surviving, suffering blows and remaining on their feet.”

U.S. President Donald Trump fails to understand this, Harel said, which is why he continues to fail to get the deal he seeks to end the conflict. “They're not interested in long-term deals. It's about surviving through chaos; surviving through resistance.”

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